Midterms Tag

In the aftermath of Trump’s election, it was widely presumed new political groundwork would be laid over the rubble of the old. That has not happened. While Republican voters are increasingly adopting “Trumpism”—viewing immigration as an existential issue and embracing economic nationalism—the Republican establishment emphatically is not. In this regard Trump is revealing himself to be...

So what should we expect in the coming year, as America’s most popular reality show, the Presidential election, gets renewed for a new season? The Democratic Party has had success running moderate, White candidates in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Alabama. But that formula is untenable in deeply Blue districts, as has been demonstrated most saliently in the...

Trump’s entrance onto the political scene in 2015 was a watershed in that the traditional metrics and punditry that had worked so well in previous elections failed spectacularly to understand his popularity over the course of the next 18 months. Much like Ron Paul in 2008, Trump was “the candidate from the Internet”: he activated a...

America’s two political parties have consistently maintained the same ideologies or “meta-platforms” over the past 50 years, to large degree over the past century. The Democrats are socially “progressive” and support government welfare and intervention; the Republicans are proudly Christian and conservative and support free markets. Republicans are “hawks” on foreign-policy, while Democrats are “doves.”...

Trump’s victory and inauguration was a winter of discontent for the Democrats and American Left: scenes of crying, shock, hysteria, wailing, and gnashing of teeth filled the news outlets and social media feeds across the country. But perhaps they shouldn’t have been so angry and depressed. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received almost three million more votes than...

In his rallies across the country, President Trump has sounded notes of both urgency and optimism about the Midterms. He’s predicted that the coming “wave” will be Red, not Blue. In June, Trump announced Twitter that he has put immigration reform on hold until 2019, when, he suggests, the House and Senate will be packed with...

Intra-party coalitions are the essence of America’s stable, two-party structure. Realignment of these coalitions are, in the words of Walter Dean Burnham, America’s “surrogate for revolution.”1 While Europe suffers through coups d’etat, popular revolts, and abdications, America experiences 30-year cycles of party hegemony. Realignment is effectively the rearranging of how geographic, class, occupational, and ethnic interests...

This essay is the first part of NPI's 2018 Outlook, a broad political analysis and forecast coinciding with the 2018 Midterm elections.   Introduction The Blue Period Realignment and The New Majority The Midterm Flip The Great Decoupling The Emerging Democratic Majority The Unmentionable Majority     Mission Impossible On June 15, 2015, Donald J. Trump descended a gold-plated elevator at Trump Tower in New York City,...