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By the fall of 2018, noted election analysts, from Charlie Cook to Nate Silver to Larry Sabato, observed a strange divergence in their Midterm forecasts: models for the House clearly favored Democrats, whereas models for the Senate favored the GOP. Historically speaking, split Congresses are exceedingly rare: this scenario occurred only one time between 1933...

In his rallies across the country, President Trump has sounded notes of both urgency and optimism about the Midterms. He’s predicted that the coming “wave” will be Red, not Blue. In June, Trump announced Twitter that he has put immigration reform on hold until 2019, when, he suggests, the House and Senate will be packed with...

Intra-party coalitions are the essence of America’s stable, two-party structure. Realignment of these coalitions are, in the words of Walter Dean Burnham, America’s “surrogate for revolution.”1 While Europe suffers through coups d’etat, popular revolts, and abdications, America experiences 30-year cycles of party hegemony. Realignment is effectively the rearranging of how geographic, class, occupational, and ethnic interests...

By the spring of 2018, liberal activists and journalists began talking about a “Blue Wave,” a term that became a hashtag on social media. The hope was that the Democrats would retake both House and the Senate—and perhaps instigate the demise of Donald Trump and everything he has come to represent. While the National Policy Institute...

This essay is the first part of NPI's 2018 Outlook, a broad political analysis and forecast coinciding with the 2018 Midterm elections.   Introduction The Blue Period Realignment and The New Majority The Midterm Flip The Great Decoupling The Emerging Democratic Majority The Unmentionable Majority     Mission Impossible On June 15, 2015, Donald J. Trump descended a gold-plated elevator at Trump Tower in New York City,...

Findings “2050” is arriving much sooner than expected. In many ways, it’s already here. Non-Hispanic Whites are already a minority among citizens 10-years-old and younger. Analysis suggests that Whites will become a minority in the United States population by 2031—almost 15 years before the census estimate—and a minority of U.S. voters by 2044, foretelling major political...

American missiles have struck Damascus. Less than a year into his administration, President Donald Trump has fallen into the same trap as his predecessors, allowing the U.S. to become entangled in a bloody civil war in the Middle East. Due to Russia’s presence and interest in the region, this conflict threatens to drag America into...

Richard Spencer and Evan McLaren February 5, 2018 For Immediate Release The New York Times has published a story that includes serious allegations about our peer and associate Elliott Kline, who conducts most of his public activities as “Eli Mosley.” These allegations are disturbing and, if they are shown to be true, would lead us to reconsider our relationship...

After a local Pennsylvania political council included a self-identified white nationalist on its scheduled debate panel, a Republican candidate for Congress led a call to deplatform him and proponents of white identity politics generally. Other conservative political boosters amplified his signal in the regional press, pejoratively insisting that respectable political discourse lacks space for those...

In March of 2017, Gregory Conte joined the National Policy Institute as Director of Operations. Before and since, he has proven to be indispensable in terms of planning our demonstrations and events, coordinating them as they happen, and keeping our supporters and staff--especially our President, Richard Spencer--safe. He also undertakes any and every chore-like duty...